Rory McIlroy, one of golf’s most iconic figures, returns to action this week at the RBC Canadian Open, looking to build on his strong track record in the tournament. His appearance at the new venue, TPC Toronto, comes with high expectations, setting the stage for a closely watched performance.
As the clear betting favorite, McIlroy aims to reinforce his status at the top of the sport following his recent career Grand Slam achievement and a well-timed rest period. The Canadian Open offers a key opportunity for him to make a statement ahead of the U.S. Open, the year’s third major.
A Champion’s Return and New Terrain
McIlroy enters this year’s Canadian Open with an outstanding track record, having finished first (twice), ninth, and fourth in his past appearances. The 2025 edition marks a new chapter for the tournament as it moves to a fresh venue—the North Course at TPC Toronto, a par-70 layout measuring 7,389 yards.
This course features only two par-fives, the strategically placed first and eighteenth holes. McIlroy, known as a driving powerhouse, should be well-suited to the wide fairways at the new venue. The North Course specifically presents six par-4 holes measuring 480 yards or more, with four of these stretching beyond 500 yards.
However, the design of TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, even before its 2023 renovations, primarily challenged golfers through its green complexes. McIlroy will have to complement his long game with a focus on the greens.
Bouncing Back from Recent Events
McIlroy’s return to the Canadian Open circuit follows a notable period of rest, having opted out of the Workday Memorial Tournament. His absence from this event garnered significant attention and criticism, particularly because he reportedly did not directly inform host Jack Nicklaus of his withdrawal.
Nicklaus, though surprised, apparently harbored no ill will towards the player, acknowledging that professionals must make their own decisions. This week’s event marks McIlroy’s first scheduled media appearance since before the PGA Championship.
For context, his break came after a disappointing 47th-place finish at Quail Hollow in the US PGA Championship.
Top Contender Status and Market Odds
With world number one Scottie Scheffler not competing this week, Rory McIlroy assumes the position of the clear betting favorite at the RBC Canadian Open. His current PGA Tour odds stand at +450, reflecting confidence in his potential performance. He remains the frontrunner, bolstered by three victories in 2025, including the career Grand Slam triumph at the Masters Tournament.
McIlroy has already secured three victories in 2025, notably completing the career Grand Slam by winning the Masters Tournament. He has previously won this event twice in the last four contests, triumphing in 2019 and 2022.
Homegrown Hopes and International Challengers
Among the strong Canadian contingent, Taylor Pendrith stands out as a key hopeful, given his local ties to Richmond Hill and extensive experience playing TPC Toronto.
Pendrith, eyeing his second PGA Tour title, has demonstrated solid form recently, securing a fifth-place finish at the PGA Championship and a twelfth at the Memorial Tournament.
Another prominent Canadian is Corey Conners, who has long been anticipated as a potential home-grown winner. Meanwhile, Robert MacIntyre, last year’s champion at Hamilton Golf & Country Club, returns to defend his title, making his second start at this event.
Pendrith’s deep familiarity with the TPC Toronto course provides him with a distinct edge. Having played the track many times, his local knowledge could prove invaluable in navigating its nuances and complexities during the tournament.
Robert MacIntyre returns to the RBC Canadian Open to defend his title for the first time on the PGA Tour, arriving in solid form.
The Scottish left-hander has made the cut in six straight tournaments and in 12 of his 14 starts this season, showcasing consistent play. His recent highlights include a T6 finish at Colonial Country Club and a top-20 result at Muirfield Village—both signs that he’s primed to contend again this week as he looks to build on last year’s breakthrough win.
Rising Stars and Outsiders
Beyond the established favorites, several players present compelling dark horse prospects.
These long-shot figures underscore the unpredictable nature of the PGA Tour, where surging form or strategic course fit can rapidly alter expectations.
- Matti Schmid: The German hopeful, offered at 80/1, is a notable outsider making consistent progress. Despite two missed cuts at the Canadian Open on different courses and a weekend off at the Memorial Tournament. He secured a ninth-place finish at the Corales Puntacana, seventh at Myrtle Beach, and a second-place result at the Charles Schwab Challenge, demonstrating his upward trajectory.
- Ludvig Åberg: Priced at +1400, also rebounded with a T16 at the Memorial Tournament after missing the cut at the PGA Championship, posting a final-round 66.
- Shane Lowry: the 2019 runner-up, at +2200, consistently posts top-ten and top-twenty finishes, with four top-tens and nine top-25s from eleven weekends this season.
Outlook for a Historic Third Win
As Rory McIlroy steps onto the TPC Toronto course, the confluence of his past triumphs, recent form, and the dynamics of a new venue creates a fascinating narrative. His impressive history in the Canadian Open, coupled with his strong driving game, positions him as a formidable competitor.
However, the strong field, including local favorites like Taylor Pendrith and defending champion Robert MacIntyre, and some noteworthy dark horses, ensures a challenging path to a third title. The tournament promises to be a gripping display of skill and strategy as top contenders vie for victory.