Bets on golf are among the most difficult and at the same time promising areas in sports betting. Unlike team sports, where the result often depends on random factors, golf is different. Virtually every shot is recorded and converted into objective metrics. It is the in-depth analysis of statistics that allows professional bettors to systematically stay ahead of the bookmakers’ lines. Even beginners who are just activating the 1xBet promo code can quickly master this strategy. There are usually enough markets to place profitable bets.
Modern measurement technologies (ShotLink at the PGA Tour, TrackMan, and similar systems at the DP World Tour) collect tens of thousands of data points per tournament. This includes:
- distance to the hole after the shot;
- percentage of hits on the green with a controlled break;
- short game efficiency;
- average number of putts.
A comprehensive Strokes Gained indicator is also formed in various components of the game (Off-the-Tee, Approach, Around-the-Green, Putting). Ignoring this data leads to typical mistakes. Often, cappers overestimate matches featuring well-known names and underestimate players with less impressive reputations but excellent current form according to key metrics. Incidentally, sometimes golfers ranked 50th to 100th in the world rankings beat the leaders. They did this by playing better with irons and putts on a specific type of course. To eliminate the percentage of failures in betting, such moments should be analyzed in detail.
Why statistics are a key tool for successful golf betting
Golf is one of the few sports where the result is almost entirely determined by the player’s measurable actions. There are no refereeing errors, ricochets, or accidental injuries in the moment. Everything is recorded in a second. Every shot, every putt, every meter counts. That’s why professional bettors win in the long run only because of statistics. The main reasons why long-term profits are impossible without numbers:
- Odds reflect reputation, not current form. As a rule, bookmakers may overestimate the odds of top athletes such as Rory, Rahm, or Scheffler. At the same time, they may underestimate golfers who are ranked 50th to 120th but are better at hitting irons and putting.
- No single player can dominate all aspects of the game. Even the world’s No. 1 almost always has a weak spot, as Scheffler in 2023 was the worst putter among the top 50, but the best in Approach.
- Strokes Gained is the only objective measure of overall performance. The system compares a player to the tour average in each area and gives the exact number of strokes gained or lost.
By the way, statistics in golf are not an advantage. They are a prerequisite for making a profit.
Key golf metrics
Analytics in golf is the basis for successful forecasting. This applies to both beginners and experienced cappers. Unlike many other sports, the statistics here are incredibly detailed. This makes the results more predictable for attentive cappers.
| Metric | What it shows | How to use it in betting |
| SG Total | Overall difference between the player and the field average | The best indicator of current form |
| SG Tee-to-Green | Ability to reach the green without putting | Important for stability and top-10 bets |
| SG Approach | Quality of approach shots | One of the main predictors of successful weeks |
| SG Around-the-Green | Short game around the green | Useful on difficult courses and majors |
| SG Putting | Level of play on the green | Important but unstable — use with caution |
| GIR | Percentage of greens in regulation | Strong indicator of consistency |
| Fairways Hit | Fairway hits after the drive | Important on narrow courses |
| Driving Distance | Average shot length | Important on long courses, linked to SG Off-the-Tee |
| Scrambling | Ability to save par from difficult situations | Useful for betting on consistent players |
| Putting Stats | Specific putting metrics | Good for live betting, but not effective for pre-match betting |
| Par Breakers/Birdie Avg | Number of birdies and better | Indicates potential for aggressive play |
It is important to note that Strokes Gained metrics are a top tool for modern bettors. This is especially true for those gambling fans who use innovative technologies to predict sports disciplines with maximum efficiency. The SG metric compares a player’s performance with that of an average competitor. Each type is designed for a specific prediction.
How to use key metrics in analyzing golf tournaments and players
A professional analysis of a golf tournament takes 5-10 minutes. This is especially true for those who already have a betting plan in place. There is also a basic algorithm of actions to follow before placing a bet.
| Step | What to check | Threshold values for the rate | Example of application |
| 1 | Course type and historical correlations | SG: Approach > 0.65 – +EV | Augusta – Top 3 in SG: Approach 125-200 yards |
| 2 | Current Tee-to-Green form over the last 50 rounds | > +1.20 – Top 10 contender | Scheffler 2024-2025: +2.10 – fixed odds |
| 3 | Key metric for the course | US Open – Scrambling > 68 % | Pinehurst 2024: Top 5 all > 70% in scrambling |
| 4 | Driving Distance vs. Fairways Hit | Long par-5s – Distance > 310 | TPC Scottsdale – Bryson, Cam Young +EV |
| 5 | GIR + Proximity to Hole | GIR > 71% and Proximity < 35 feet | Muirfield Village – Morikawa, Hovland |
| 6 | Putting (only as a regression filter) | SG: Putting > +1.0 > 3 tournaments – minus | Player after +1.5 putting – expect a drop |
| 7 | Birdie Average for live play | > 5.0 on an easy course – odds to win | Wyndham 2024: Chan Kim played 8-10 positions |
By the way, putting is not entirely stable for live forecasting. It is important for beginners to remember that One-Putt % and 3-Putt Avoidance can help cappers determine how dangerous a player is on the green. Choose a strategy and focus on the numbers. Anyone can be lucky at betting.